Gold Wednesday 9th April 2014

Hey all,

Once again, sorry for the lack of posts on my blog recently - I have had a lot going on and haven't had much time to keep this updated daily as much as I would of liked to.

Gold has quite possibly formed a bottom on the recent down move (correction) from this years up move and it stalled around the 50% fib retracement levels.

Currently, market price is hovering around the 38.2& fib retracement and we are now in a recovery from the correction. CMP @ $1310 at time of writing this.

From my personal analysis, I believe we are resuming the uptrend that began at the beginning of this year purely on a technical basis. 1300 was taken out again without much problems when it was time and now as mentioned before, we are currently playing around the 38.2% fib retracement.

I am currently long and don't intend to short Gold even for scalps because I do not see the RR in shorting gold at the moment. I'm looking to take out some profits between 1316-1322 where there was previous support and resistance in the down move. I see a small pull back occurring around there before heading back into the 1330s.

Intraday we are clearly in an uptrend now and have been respecting previous S/R levels from the down move.

As you can see in my intraday hourly chart below, I am looking for 1306-1307 to be respected as support if it were to get down to those prices in the near future but looking for 1316+1322 to be seen within this week.

We are in an upward channel and I am looking for buying opportunities on any decent pullbacks or retracements from the support and resistance levels.

Gold Outlook for Week Commencing 31st March 2014

Hey all,

Apologies for not updating my blog for over a week, I have had a lot going on and haven't had much time to spend in front of my screens apart from checking in on my trades and updating them.

Last week we saw another sharp decline - could we have possibly formed a bottom now? Personally, I think there is more downside left in this move.

You can see from my chart below where I see key support and resistance levels on Gold. At the close of yesterdays market, the price is sitting between Support Level 1 and Resistance Level 1 (under the 1300 psychological level). Gold tried to rally up on Friday to get near to 1300 again however it did not have enough power to touch of go through this psychological level and was pushed back down closing the day/week at $1293.

Ideally, I would like to see 1300-1309 re-tested before adding any shorts to my portfolio again, and I would look to see this at the beginning of next week. Monday is the last trading day of the month and next week there is also some high impact news on the way which will bring more intraday volatility to the precious metal.

The way PA has been playing out has been showing extreme weakness in the bulls. In the last 10 trading day, there have been 3 out of 7 daily bulls candle closes - of which have been pushed down from their highest prices of the day. The daily bear candles have been closing much more firmly showing the strength lays with the bears still. Although this may just be a strong correction of the recent upmove, unless we form some sort of base or daily supportive candle with a continuation, I cannot see the bulls taking this much further at the present moment in time.

The keys levels on the downtrend I am now looking at are 1282 & 1262. I see buyers waiting here to take the price back up but how far up only PA can really tell this.

Depending on candle formation on the 4HR & 1HR charts at 1300-1310, I will be assessing my shorts and adding to them looking at SL1 and SL2 to take profits. If RL1 is taken out firmly then there could be potential for the bulls to have regained control.

Next week will show quite a bit of movement but at the current levels I am just going to be a spectator and not get involved in trading this metal until I see the price come to me at either the next support or resistance level.

Blog Update

Hey all,

Just want to apologize for not keeping my "new" blog updated this week - I have had a lot going on, I hope you are all making pips and cash in the bank it has been a great week shorting Gold especially.

I will start updating my blog again from next week properly however just dropping a line to say that PA is downwards and I am currently shorting Gold quite heavily with TPs within the 1270-1287 range and will keep adjusting these as PA moves and either I start to see supportive candles or further break through supports.

Have a great weekend all!

Gold Wednesday 19th March 2014

Firstly, sorry for the late post today, I have been actively trading throughout the day and watching the charts like a hawk as I was trading quite heavy lots for today. Happy to say all my trades have hit TP today.

We have reached the bottom support of Support Zone 1 (see daily chart below) where I took off all my short trades.

The FOMC is later on today 19:00 GMT+1 and I took off my shorts due to this. We could quite easily hit the 132x levels today however I would prefer to stay out of trading for the rest of the day until things clear up overnight and start fresh again from tomorrow.

3 days in a row now we have had bearish candles on the daily TF. A lot of short term support also taken out.

I am going to see how PA reacts to the FOMC and then see how the charts are looking tomorrow before deciding whether to long or short Gold now.

The correction so far has been nice however I still see room for it to go lower before find extreme support for the path back into the 142x levels.

Today's high has been 1359.55 and currently  there has been a low of 1337.684.

Silver Tuesday 18th March 2014

Silver looks like it is aiming for its first major support level at 20.5 - 20.6. Yesterday was a bearish day and I can now see some sort of correction back to these levels before a possibility of a further push up to take out the most recent high of 22.16.

I am not trading Silver at the moment as the picture is not clear enough for me and the RR would not be within my rules of trading.

However if I were trading a demo I would be short right now to 20.5.

Gold Tuesday 18th March 2014

So gold had quite a day yesterday. I was short in the 1390 level and took out for profit yesterday evening when PA bounced of a previous resistance level from the daily chart at at 1361 which was now used as support.

Today it has already passed through the support level at 1361 and I anticipate it to get into the next support zone between 1339-1350 at some point before Thursday as long as 1386 is intact.

On the smaller TF (15M) we have been making lower highs and lower lows since yesterday which is still also intact. The previous higher low was taken out yesterday from the breakout north (see 15M chart below). On the short term I am looking for 1367 to hold as immediate resistance for continuation south.

Overall I am still with a bullish bias so techincally I am shorting Gold until I see solid support to order to place my buy order which will take me to the 142x levels in the long run.

Today is shorting day for me, I am not looking to place any buy orders just yet as I see further movement south still.

Silver Outlook for Week Commencing 17th March 2014

Silver made a new daily & weekly high on Friday. Almost touching the downward TL from where it pulled back from. I closed out all my longs on Silver on Friday however I am still 100% bullish on Silver in the long term.

Silver may return to 20.5 in the near future where there will be plenty of buyers waiting to get in. I am not going to trade Silver at the moment because I just do not see a good entry price at the moment. However I have set buy orders at the 20.5 price if it were to return there next week however ideally I am looking for 22 to be cleared and then will manually enter long at those levels if it clears, holds and uses 22 as a new support from which I will have my main TP at 23 and my final TP at 24.5.